After dropping from just above 67,500 to a low near 15,000, a 77 % loss from peak to trough, Bitcoin then spent about 13 months going mostly sideways. Then, suddenly, this week buyers appeared, and prices headed up again just as if the old days had returned after a long, long vacation. Ethereum and most of the rest of the crowd joined in with the upward-ness.
In typical market fashion, the move back up comes at a time when the sector’s biggest former stars are just now beginning to face the music. Sam Bankman-Fried of shorts-and-t-shirt fame, is now ensconced in his parents’ home near Stanford University, having left the Bahamas after authorities found issues with his cryptocurrency business.
“People might finally be going to jail?” must mean that a market bottom surely is near, according to those in touch with the decentralized zeitgeist. It’s something like “all the bad news is out,” the old saw applied to the equities market. Whether it’s actually the case for cryptos remains to be seen, of course, but here are latest charts showing the new action.
In just a few days of trading, the most popular cryptocurrency in the world is back above its 200-day moving average (the red line) and back to well above its 50-day moving average (the blue line) which is just at the beginning of “up trending.”
Volume (the grayish bars below the price) is merely decent and nothing to write home about. The relative strength indicator (RSI, below the price chart) is in the “way overbought” area.
The weekly price chart for Bitcoin is here:
It’s not all that exciting when viewed on the longer time frame: price has returned to the October/November resistance, not surprising given how markets generally trade up and down. Bitcoin remains below both significant moving averages, a less than bullish look although with cryptocurrencies, anything’s possible.
The difference between this and the Bitcoin chart is this: sellers moved in quickly to take advantage of Ethereum’s closeness to the October/November resistance level just above 1600. Other than that, it’s a nice pop above the moving averages and now the relative strength indicator is already “overbought.”
The weekly chart for Ethereum looks like this:
It’s back above the 200-week moving average which continues slowly upward. This move slows the descent of the 50-week moving average but only a little.
Here is the daily chart for XRP
As price begins to approach the November resistance area of $.41, enough sellers appear to take it back down again. Note that the move up takes XRP just barely above its 200-day moving average and quickly well above its 50-day moving average. The relative strength indicator is not quite at the “overbought” range.
The weekly chart for XRP looks like this:
The price is off the lows but is far from the September/October highs and the 50-week moving average is crossing below the 200-week moving average, typically less than bullish.
That said for all of the cryptos, please consider how important it is to remember that half of all bitcoin trades may be fake, according to this Forbes analysis. Have fun.
Not investment advice. For educational purposes only.