The Josh Allen Ripple Effect

If you’re making Buffalo Bills vs. Minnesota Vikings DFS picks for Sunday in Week 10, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Bills Considerations

Josh Allen’s health. That’s the burning light our DFS solar system surrounds. Allen’s health impacts the values of not just his Bills teammates, but also the relative values of his Vikings opponents.

Because Allen at full strength at $11,800 is probably a better value than Dalvin Cook at $9,400. We could even make a strong case for Stefon Diggs ($10,600) being a preferred play over Cook, who could fade a bit in the fourth quarter if the Vikings are down by double digits . . . in part, because of Allen.

Pick any player in this DFS slate — from running backs to kickers and even D/STs — and we’ll find distinct value shifts for nearly all of them based on Allen’s health.

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I’m writing this on Friday afternoon, when he’s firmly questionable. If Allen somehow is a full go by Sunday, I’ll update. But right now, this lineup needs to factor in the strong possibility that Case Keenum will start, or else a less-than-100% Allen will “give it a go.”

The point spread for this contest favored Buffalo by 7.5 points on Monday. It’s currently at only 3.5. Makes sense. This could be a pretty close game, and as a result, we should consider the Bills’ DFS options that reflect a slightly more RB-heavy game script and slightly less scoring, while still capitalizing on Minnesota’s subpar pass defense.

Vikings Considerations

Over the years, I’ve often written that Minnesota’s had one of the league’s most top-heavy offenses. Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson (and Diggs before him), and Adam Thielen customarily comprised a four-player corps that we could more or less bank on each week.

Aside from occasional meaningful contributions from No. 3 or No. 4 receivers (like K.J. Osborn and Irv Smith Jr.), this group offered predictability, which in turn made our jobs easier when crafting DFS lineups.

Is this another Jefferson day, or should Cook be the MVP? Pretty clear-cut.

But Minnesota’s acquisition for T.J. Hockenson has unsteadied this long-time approach. Hockenson brings a playmaking ability the Vikings haven’t enjoyed in the last two decades or more. They’ve had one top-six fantasy TE during these past 20 years: 2016’s Kyle Rudolph, who finished just behind Travis Kelce in their battle for the No. 1 spot.

MORE: NFL Survivor Pool Picks Week 10

That turned out to be Kelce’s first season at No. 1.

However, some context is needed. Rudolph was 15th in the entire NFL in targets that year. He averaged 10.1 yards per reception, which was near the bottom among the top 30 fantasy TEs. Comparatively, Hockenson is averaging 11.0 for his career, including a sterling 13.3 this season.

The Vikings needed another impact player before the trade deadline to improve their Super Bowl odds. They found him. As a result, the once-predictable four-man offensive corps has grown to five. And the odds of picking the right players each week have decreased.

Top DFS Picks for Bills vs. Vikings

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Captain: WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($15,900 Captain Cost)

Diggs is facing his former team in a statement game. The Vikings are surrendering the sixth-most receiving yards. Gabe Davis hasn’t become a consistent option (yet). If Buffalo wins this game, Diggs likely will be a big reason why.

Flex: RB Dalvin Cook, Vikings ($9,400)

Assuming Buffalo’s not operating at full strength, the Vikings should keep this one close. Advantage: Cook. There are few more complete RBs in the league.

Flex: TE T.J. Hockenson, Vikings ($7,000)

See above. Minnesota traded for Hockenson because they needed better playmaking from their lead tight end. Barring something unforeseen, he’ll remain a key target for Kirk Cousins.

Flex: WR Adam Thielen, Vikings ($6,600)

We could spend a lot more for Jefferson, but for what?

I know what you’re thinking. “He can get us 25 points.”

Sure, and he’s more likely to score less than 18. To stay within the salary cap and maximize value elsewhere, I love Thielen’s scoring potential as one of the most formidable red-zone threats of the past five years.

Flex: RB Devin Singletary, Bills ($6,200)

Love his dump-off potential, as well as his sustained leadership role in this backfield. While Devin Singletary generally isn’t a glamorous DFS pick, his pretty consistent double-digit-touch volume will come in handy. I’m expecting the team to lean on him a little more than usual near the goal line.

Flex: TE Dawson Knox, Bills ($4,800)

We have $4,900 left. Assuming the Bills operate a little more conservatively than usual on offense, Dawson Knox should inherit an extra target or two. And despite his two TDs, he’s actually one of the better TE touchdown options in the league.

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